>>> HELLO EVERYONE AND WELCOME TO AMANPOUR & COMPANY.

HERE IS WHAT'S COMING UP.

AS WAR EXPANDS FROM IRAN TO LEBANON TO SAUDI ARABIA, I ASKED THE FORMER SENIOR U.S.

MILITARY COMMANDER DAVID PATREUS AS WHAT HE SEES AS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.

>>> ISRAEL SEES AN OPPORTUNITY TO END THE IRANIAN REGIME.

BUT WILL TRUMP STAND THE COURSE?

>>> AND, HOW WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST IMPACTS THE WAR IN UKRAINE, WALTER ISAAC SAN SPEAKS TO ADVISER OF VOLODYMYR ZELENSKYY.

>>> AMANPOUR & COMPANY IS MADE POSSIBLE BY THE ANDERSON FAMILY ENDOWMENT.

JIM ATTWOOD AND LESLIE WILLIAMS.

COMMITTED TO BRIDGING CULTURAL DIFFERENCES IN OUR COMMUNITIES.

AND BY CONTRIBUTIONS TO YOUR PBS STATION FROM VIEWERS LIKE YOU, THANK YOU.

>>> WELCOME TO THE PROGRAM EVERYONE.

I'M BIANNA GOLODRYGA IN NEW YORK SITTING IN FOR CHRISTIANE AMANPOUR.

TODAY, ANOTHER STRIKE AT THE HEART OF THE IRANIAN REGIME, ISRAEL BOMBED THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS COMPOUND IN THE HOLY CITY.

MEANING THE STRIKE TO HIT WHILE ITS MEMBERS WERE VOTING TO ELECT THE COUNTRY'S NEXT SUPREME LEADER.

BUT IRAN SAYS THE BUILDING HAD BEEN EVACUATED REQUIRE.

AND THE WAR CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST.

IN BEIRUT, THE ISRAELI AIR FORCES STRIKING HEZBOLLAH TARGETS AS THEIR FORCES SEIZED GROUND IN SOUTHERN LEBANON.

IN SAUDI ARABIA, THE U.S.

WARNS THERE IS A THREAT OF IMMINENT ATTACKS AFTER ITS EMBASSY WAS STRUCK BY SUSPECTED IRANIAN DRONES.

THE U.S.

STATE DEPARTMENT ORDERED THE DEPARTURE OF GOVERNMENT PERSONNEL FROM JORDAN, IRAQ, QATAR, KUWAIT, AND THE UAE DUE TO SECURITY CONCERNS.

SPEAKING IN THE OVAL OFFICE ALONGSIDE THE GERMAN CHANCELLOR, PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ASKED ABOUT HIS WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR IRAN.

HERE'S HIS RESPONSE.

>> I GUESS THE WORSE CASE WOULD BE WE DO THIS AND THEN SOMEBODY TAKES OVER WHO IS AS BAD AS THE PREVIOUS PERSON.

RIGHT?

THAT COULD HAPPEN.

WE DON'T WANT THAT TO HAPPEN.

THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE THE WORST, YOU GO THROUGH THIS.

AND THEN, IN FIVE YEARS YOU REALIZE YOU PUT SOMEBODY IN WHO WAS NO BETTER.

>> HERE TO RESPOND TO PRESIDENT TRUMP'S WORST CASE AND CONSIDER THE RISKS AS THE WAR ESCALATES IS GENERAL DAVID PETRAUS.

GENERAL PETRAEUS JOINS US LIVE NOW.

YOU CALLED THE STRIKE AN EXTRAORDINARY SUCCESS, BUT DOES HIS REMOVAL TAKE AWAY THE COUNTRY AND ITS LEADERSHIP'S OPPORTUNITY AND ACCESS TO BOTH BALLISTIC MISSILES AND THEIR THREATS TO THE REGION, POTENTIALLY EVEN THE UNITED STATES AS PRESIDENT TRUMP LAID OUT?

AS WELL AS THEIR NUCLEAR PROGRAM AND THEIR PROXIES?

>> WELL, I THINK IT WAS AN EXTRAORDINARY ACHIEVEMENT AS WERE THE KILLINGS OF THE DEFENSE MINISTRY, THE CHAIRMAN OF THE JOINT CHIEF'S EQUIVALENT AND OTHERS.

THESE ARE DEGRADING THEIR CAPABILITIES AS ARE THE STRIKES AGAINST THE HEADQUARTERS AND ALL THE REST OF THAT.

WHAT IS GOING ON, THOUGH, IS IT IS VERY CLEAR THAT THERE WAS A DECENTRALIZATION, A DEEVOLUTION OF AUTHORITY THAT TOOK PLACE BEFORE ALL OF THIS.

AND THOSE SUBORDINATE UNITS ARE CARRYING OUT WHAT APPEARED TO BE PREAPPROVED TARGETS WITH MISSILES AND DRONES AND I THINK FOOLISHLY EXPANDING THE WAR, UNDERGOING HORIZONTAL ESCALATION IF YOU WILL TO ATTACK NOT JUST U.S.

BASES AND DIPLOMATIC FACILITIES THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND IN ISRAEL, BUT ALSO TO GO AFTER CIVILIAN TARGETS FROM SEA PORTS, AIRPORTS, LOADING LOCATIONS FOR OIL AND GAS AND SO FORTH WHICH IS REALLY FORCING THE HANDS OF THE GULF STATES WHO WANTED TO STAY OUT OF THIS.

REMEMBER THEY DID NOT ALLOW OUR FORCES TO USE THEIR BASES.

AND NOW THEY ARE BEING BROUGHT INTO IT.

THE SAME IS TRUE OF THE U.K.

WHOSE BASE IN CYRUS WAS ATTACKED BY APPARENTLY A HEZBOLLAH DONALD TRUMP LAUNCH DRONE.

THE CHANCELLOR HAS BEEN RELATIVELY SUPPORTIVE AS WELCH WHAT YOU SEE IS NOT ONLY AN EXPANSION OF TARGETS BUT AN EXPANSION OF COUNTRIES WILLING TO ENTER THIS AT THE VERY LEAST IN TERMS OF PROBABLY OPENING THEIR BASES LIKE THE U.K.

DID.

AND PARTICIPATING IN DEFENSIVE OPERATIONS BUT ALSO IN SOME CASES CONSIDERING ENTERING THE OFFENSIVE ACTION AGAINST IRAN AS WELL.

AND YOU SEE STEADY PROGRESS I THINK AGAINST THE VARIOUS TARGETS ON WHICH THE ISRAELIS AND THE AMERICANS HAVE FOCUSED.

THE MISSILE PROGRAM, ITS LAUNCHERS AND THE MANUFACTURING FACILITIES.

SAME WITH THE DRONE FACILITIES AND THESE HAVE BEEN QUITE PROBLEMATIC.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME EXTRAORDINARY SUCCESSES LIKE THE UAE JUST KNOCKING DOWN MANY, MANY HUNDREDS OUT OF THE NUMBERS OF IRANIAN DRONES SENT THEIR WAY.

BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE KILLING OF OUR SOLDIERS IN KUWAIT WAS THE RESULT OF DRONE ATTACKS.

SO THAT IS A CHALLENGE.

THE NAVY HAS BEEN HIT VERY HARD.

OTHER CAPABILITIES THAT COULD RETALIATE BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY IT COMES DOWN TO WHAT THE PRESIDENT DISCUSSED IN THE OVAL OFFICE.

AND THAT IS IN ESSENCE WHO IS GOING TO FOLLOW THE SUPREME LEADER.

THE ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS MET TODAY, THAT IS THEIR VERSION OF A CONCLAVE, TO SELECT THE NEW LEADER BUT IT WAS BOMBED AS WELL.

SO THE QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE SOME ELEMENT THAT AFTER WE HAVE IN A WAY SET THE CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE TOPPLING OF THE REGIME NOTING IT DOES NOT APPEAR WE ARE GOING TO PUT BOOTS ON THE GROUND TO ENSURE THAT, CAN THERE BE THE EMERGENCE OF A BREAK OFF FORCE, MAYBE OUT OF THE REGULAR ARMY NAVY AIR FORCE OF MARINES, CERTAINLY NOT PROBABLY FROM THE REGIME PROTECTION REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS CORE.

WITH EFFECTIVE LEADERSHIP AND REAL MILITARY CAPABILITY.

BECAUSE I DON'T THINK THAT THE PEOPLE ALONE, THIS IS NOT GOING TO BE A SITUATION LIKE THE COLOR REVOLUTIONS AFTER THAT COLLAPSE OF THE SOVIET UNION IN THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL WHEN IT WAS JUST LITERALLY PEOPLE POWER ON THE STREETS THAT WERE ABLE TO TOPPLE OR FORCE REGIMES FROM OFFICE.

>> YEAH.

AND, I IN THE LAST HOUR JUST MOMENTS AGO SPOKE WITH A MAN I KNOW YOU KNOW QUITE WELL, FORMER ISRAELI DEFENSE MINISTRY AND I ASKED HIM ABOUT WHETHER OR NOT REGIME CHANGE WAS A PRIORITY AS WELL FOR ISRAEL IN THIS OPERATION.

HE HAS LONG SAID THAT YOU CANNOT BOMB YOUR WAY FROM THE SKIES TO REGIME CHANGE ON THE GROUND.

BUT HE ALSO SEEMED TO RULE OUT ISRAELI MILITARY PRESENCE ON THE GROUND.

BOOTS ON THE GROUND.

THOUGH HE DID SUGGEST THAT PERHAPS SOME SORT OF SOFT POWER INTERVENTION HAS BEEN IN THE WORKS FOR A BIT OF TIME NOW.

I WANT TO GET TO ALL OF THE POINTS YOU JUST RAISED BUT IN TERMS OF WHAT LED THE UNITED STATES TO TAKE THIS ACTION NOW, THERE HAVE BEEN SOME QUESTIONS RAISED ABOUT THE NARRATIVES HERE COMING FROM THE PRESIDENT AND SOME OF HIS TOP ADVISERS, PRESIDENT TRUMP LAYING OUT YESTERDAY THAT IN FACT, IT WAS THEIR BALLISTIC MISSILES THAT HE SAID WERE NEARING STRIKING DISTANCE OF THE U.S.

POTENTIALLY.

THEY SERVED AS A THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

AND, NOTABLY, THAT THEY SERVED AS A SHIELD FOR ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

AND THUS, THAT LED HIM TO DECIDE TO ATTACK WHEN HE DID AND YET JUST A FEW HOURS LATER, SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO SAID SOMETHING QUITE DIFFERENT.

LET ME PLAY THAT.

>> WE KNEW THERE WAS GOING TO BE AN ISRAELI ACTION.

WE KNEW THAT WOULD PRECIPITATE AN ATTACK AGAINST AMERICAN FORCES AND IF WE DIDN'T PREEMPTIVELY GO AFTER THEM, WE WOULD SUFFER HIGHER CASUALTIES.

AND ALL BE HERE ANSWERING QUESTIONS ABOUT WHY WE KNEW THAT AND DIDN'T ACT.

>> SO JUST A FEW MOMENTS AGO, PRESIDENT TRUMP WAS ASKED ABOUT THIS.

WHETHER OR NOT ISRAEL ESSENTIALLY FORCED HIS HAND TO ENTER THIS WAR AND HE SAID NO, IF ANYTHING, I FORCED ISRAEL'S HAND HERE.

AND, REITERATED HIS VIEW THAT IRAN DID POSE SOMEWHAT OF AN IMMINENT THREAT TO THE UNITED STATES.

WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE SHIFTING NARRATIVES AND DO YOU THINK THE PRESIDENT DID ENOUGH IN JUSTIFYING WHY HE DECIDED NOW?

>> WELL THERE HAS BEEN A NUMBER OF EXPLANATIONS FOR THIS.

MY SENSE IS THAT THERE HAS BEEN AN EXPECTATION THAT ISRAEL WAS GOING TO TAKE STRIKES AGAINST THE IRANIAN MISSILE PROGRAM IN PARTICULAR, THAT ITS RECONSTITUTION WAS PARTICULARLY WORRISOME.

MANY OF US EXPECTED THAT WOULD TAKE PLACE WITHIN A MONTH OR AT MOST TWO.

THEN I THINK THERE WAS A RECOGNITION IF THIS IS COMING AND THE NUCLEAR TALKS DIDN'T SEEM TO BE GOING ANYWHERE.

DESPITE WHAT A THIRD PARTY SAID ABOUT POTENTIAL PROGRESS THEY WERE BEING STRETCHED OUT AND THE NEGOTIATORS THAT SEEMED TO BE PLAYING OUR NEGOTIATORS TO A DEGREE AND THERE WAS RECOGNITION WE HAD SO MUCH PATTERN OF LIFE INFORMATION.

SO MUCH EXQUISITE INTELLIGENCE, IF WE STRUCK, WE WOULD BE ABLE TO TAKE OUT THE SUPREME LEADER AND A NUMBER OF OTHER IMPORTANT LEADERS.

THAT PROVED TO BE THE CASE.

IN FACT, IT WAS STUNNING ARROGANCE THAT THE SUPREME LEADER GATHERED IN A LOCATION THAT WAS BOMB DURING DAYLIGHT.

I ASSUME BECAUSE THEY SAID WELL, THEY DIDN'T ATTACK IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS LAST NIGHT.

LET'S GET TOGETHER ONE MORE TIME.

THEY WON'T ATTACK UNTIL THE LIGHTS GO OUT.

AND THAT PROVED TO BE OBVIOUSLY A CATASTROPHICALLY BAD ASSUMPTION SO I THINK IT'S A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT FACTORS THAT ALL CAME TOGETHER AND THE DECISION WAS MADE.

LET'S DO IT NOW.

YOU WILL RECALL THAT PRESIDENT TRUMP HAD A DEGREE OF TACTICAL SURPRISE THE LAST TIME AND THIS CERTAINLY HAD THAT IN THIS PARTICULAR CASE AS WELL.

>> AND THAT THEN RAISES THE QUESTION OF WHAT ARE THE OPPORTUNITIES AND WHAT ARE THE CONCERNS THAT REMAIN IF THERE IS IN FACT A POWER VACUUM RIGHT NOW FOR THE COUNTRY.

THE REGIME CURRENTLY RESEMBLES A CHICKEN WITH ITS HEAD CUT OFF.

THIS IS NO DOUBT A ZOMBIE TYPE OF REGIME THAT WHILE WEAKENED CAN STILL DO QUITE SOME DAMAGE HERE.

WHAT ARE YOUR BIGGEST CONCERNS AS MORE AND MORE TIME UNFOLDS AS ATTACKS AGAINST REGIONAL PARTNERS CONTINUE WITHOUT THAT STABLE LEADERSHIP?

THAT THE WEST, THAT ISRAEL IS HOPING FOR?

>> WELL I'M NOT SURE A STABLE LEADERSHIP PRIOR TO THIS.

I THINK A BETTER CHARACTERIZATION, I'M SURE KAREEM WOULD HAVE LABELED THIS AS JUST ABSOLUTELY HARD LINE IDEOLOGICAL LEADERS THAT WERE IN PLACE, BUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED AS I MENTIONED EARLIER IS THERE HAS BEEN A DELEGATION OF AUTHORITY IN ADVANCE.

THERE ARE OTHER LEADERS STEPPING UP AND TAKING OVER.

THEY HAVE DEPUTY COMMANDER SUCCESSION PLANS.

THERE IS THE THREE-PERSON COUNCIL THAT IS IN ESSENCE IN CHARGE RIGHT NOW.

THE PRESIDENT, THE SENIOR JUDICIAL OFFICIAL AND A CLERIC WHO HAS BEEN SELECTED THAT COULD BE THE NEXT SUPREME LEADER.

BUT THEY ARE NOT IN THE KIND OF ACTIVE COMMANDING CONTROL.

THEY HAVE TO STAY AWAY FROM ELECTRONIC DEVICES UNLESS THEY ARE DEEPLY BURIED UNDERGROUNDS.

I THINK THE SHORT TERM CONCERN IS OUR ABILITY TO FIND AND DESTROY THE REMAINING MISSILE STOCKS, LAUNCHERS AND MANUFACTURING FACILITIES FOR THOSE AS WELL TO PUT THOSE SUBSTANTIALLY OUT OF MISSION FOR A VERY LONG TIME.

AND DO TO DO THE SAME WITH THE DRONE CAPACITY THEY HAVE AS WELL.

THAT HAS PROVE AGAIN TO BE PROBLEMATIC.

SOME COUNTRIES HAVE GOOD SHORT RANGE AIR DEFENSE SYSTEMS THEY INVESTED IN OVER THE YEARS.

IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ALL HAVE THAT CAPACITY, THOUGH.

AND THAT HAS BEEN CHALLENGING JUST AS WERE THE DRONES PROVIDED BY IRAN TO RUSSIA.

SO CHALLENGING FOR UKRAINE.

AND THEN IN THE MID TO LONGER TERM, AS WE ARE ABLE TO DEGRADE ALL OF THESE DIFFERENT ELEMENTS OF THE REGIME LEADERSHIP, THE REGIME FORCES AND SO ON, CAN THAT BE SUFFICIENT THAT THE PEOPLE WITH SOME KIND OF CHARISMATIC LEADER WHO EMERGES WITH REAL MILITARY CAPABILITY, KEEP IN MIND THAT SADLY IN MOST OF THESE SITUATIONS, THE SIDE THAT PREVILES IS THE ONE THAT HAS THE MOST GUYS WITH THE MOST GUNS AND THE WILLINGNESS TO BE RUTHLESS.

AS WE HAVE SEEN FROM THE REGIME FORCES IN PUTTING DOWN THE DEMONSTRATORS.

BY THE WAY, YOU WERE TALKING NEARLY ONE MILLION MEN UNDER ARMS IN THE REGIME FORCES UNLESS THEY ACTUALLY BREAK AWAY.

IN AGAIN POSSIBLY THE ARMIES OR OTHERS MIGHT DO THAT.

WE DON'T SEE THAT, THOUGH THERE MAY BE ACTIVITIES BEHIND THE SCENE.

AND MAYBE THERE ARE NOT BOOTS ON THE GROUND, BUT SNEAKERS ON THE GROUND TRYING TO CARRY OUT COVERT ACTION THAT COULD ENABLE THE EMERGENCE OF THIS KIND OF FORCE.

BUT WE CERTAINLY HAVE NOT YET SEEN EVIDENCE OF THAT AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

>> WE KNOW FROM A LOT OF REPORTING THAT THERE WAS A LOT OF SIGNALS, INTELLIGENCE THAT ISRAEL HAD ACCESS TO IN TERMS OF LOCATING WHERE THE SUPREME LEADER WAS AND THAT IT WAS ULTIMATELY ACCORDING TO REPORTING A CIA SOURCE ON THE GROUND THAT CONFIRMED THE SIGNAL'S INTELLIGENCE FROM THE ISRAELIS BUT IN TERMS OF WHAT CAN BE DONE MOVING FORWARD, WE HEARD THE PRESIDENT OVER THE WEEKEND CALLING FOR IRGC MEMBERS TO PUT DOWN THEIR WEAPONS AND THAT THEY WOULD BE GIVEN BLANKET IMMUNITY.

IT DOES SEEM THAT SOME SORT OF LESSONS FROM IRAQ ARE AT PLAY HERE RIGHT NOW.

AND THEN THERE WAS REPORTING THIS MORNING THAT THE PRESIDENT PERHAPS AFTER SPEAKING WITH SOME KURDISH MILITIA OFFICIALS IS OPEN TO HAVING THEM JOIN ON THE GROUND AS OLE WITH.

WOULD THAT BE ADVISABLE FROM YOUR STANDPOINT?

>> WELL, THERE ARE NUMEROUS ELEMENTS WITHIN IRAN.

THERE ARE KURDS, TURKMEN, SUNNIS, THERE ARE VARIOUS DISPARATE ELEMENTS THAT MIGHT RISE UP TO SOME DEGREE BUT THEY DON'T A PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE CAPABILITY ALTHOUGH BEING ADMIRABLY INTENTIONED HERE, AGAINST A ONE MILLION STRONG FORCE.

THERE IS ALSO THE MEK.

SOME HAVE CALLED IT A BIT OF A CULT.

THEY ARE PRETTY SERIOUS AND SECULAR, THEY HAVE ACTUALLY IDENTIFIED A PARLIAMENT IN WAITING AND THIS KIND OF THING SO THERE ARE VARIOUS ELEMENTS OUT THERE.

BUT, CAN ANY OF THEM DEVELOP REAL MILITARY CAPABILITY AND CAPACITY?

WHERE ISTO HARKEN BACK TO WHAT TOOK PLACE IN AFGHANISTAN AND WE WENT IN AND HE PUT TOGETHER THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE.

WAS ASSASSINATED BEFORE HE COULD SEE THE OUTCOME IN THE TOPPLING OF THE REGIME THERE.

THE TALIBAN.

SO IS THERE SOMETHING LIKE THAT SOMEWHERE?

IS THERE AN EFFORT IN GOING?

KEEP IN MIND, THE ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE SERVICE RAN DRONE BASES FROM INSIDE IRAN THAT PICKED OFF AND VERY PRECISELY CARTED OVER A DOZEN OF THE NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS AND A NUMBER OF SENIOR LEADERS.

IS THERE SOMETHING GOING ON THERE?

WE DON'T KNOW THAT.

WE DO KNOW CERTAINLY THAT THE PENETRATION OF IRAN IS EXTRAORDINARY.

REMEMBER THAT MOSAD WAS ABLE TO STEAL THE ENTIRE LIBRARY OF NUCLEAR WRECKAGE RIGHT OUT OF TEHERAN.

SOME YEARS AGO IN ADDITION TO THESE MORE RECENT PINPOINT STRIKES AGAINST LEADERS AND AND NUCLEAR SCIENTISTS.

>> AND NOW THEY SEEM TO HAVE FULL CONTROL OVER THE SKIES OF IRAN GIVEN THEIR OPERATIONS THE PAST YEAR-AND-A-HALF OR SO, TO THAT POINT OF SOFT POWER, WINNING OVER HEARTS AND MINDS, LESSONS LEARNED FROM PAST EXPERIENCES, PARTICULARLY IN IRAQ, WAR IS TRAGIC.

THERE ARE A NUMBER OF CASUALTIES AMONG CIVILIANS, EVEN THE YOUNGEST OF THEM.

BUT JUST YOUR REACTION IN THE EARLY DAYS AND HOURS OF THIS WAR TO THE KILLING OF WHAT APPEAR TO BE OVER 100 YOUNG SCHOOLGIRLS.

IT MAY BE THAT THE UNITED STATES WAS ACTUALLY THE ONE WHO HAD LAUNCHED THAT MISSILE.

WE DON'T HAVE CLARITY ON THAT FRONT.

EITHER WAY A TRAGEDY AND ONE THAT THE REGIME IS REALLY PLAYING UP HERE FROM A PROPAGANDA STANDPOINT.

NEVER MIND THE NUMBER OF CIVILIANS THEY ARE ACCUSED OF KILLING.

JUST YOUR REACTION TO THAT AND LESSONS LEARNED EARLY ON INTO THIS WAR.

>> WELL I AM VERY CONFIDENT THAT NEITHER ISRAEL NOR THE UNITED STATES DELIBERATELY TARGETED A GIRL'S SCHOOL.

BUT HISTORY IS FULL OF CASES IN WHICH THERE WERE ERRANT STRIKES, SOMETIMES MISTAKEN STRIKES.

I WAS THE EXECUTIVE OF THE CHAIRMAN OF JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF WHEN WE HIT THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN BELGRADE AND THAT WAS DEFINITELY BY MISTAKE.

ALTHOUGH IT WAS PRETTY HARD TO CONVINCE THE CHINESE OF THAT.

SO THESE THINGS DO HAPPEN IN WAR AND THEY ARE ABSOLUTELY TRAGIC.

MY EXPERIENCE, THOUGH, IS THAT SOFT POWER IS WHAT SOLIDIFIES THE GAINS ACHIEVED BY HARD POWER.

IN OTHER WORDS, YOU ACHIEVE SECURITY AS WE DID DURING THE SURGE IN IRAQ WHICH I WAS PRIVILEGED TO COMMAND AND WE WENT INTO A NEIGHBORHOOD, WE CLEARED IT OF THE EXTREMISTS, THE MILITIA INSURGENTS.

GATED OFF.

THEN YOU SOLIDIFY THE SECURITY GAINS BUT WHAT YOU BUILD ON TOP OF THAT WITH SOFT POWER, BY REBUILDING MARKETS, BRIDGES, SCHOOLS.

CLINICS, YOU NAME IT.

THAT IS WHAT CONVINCES THE PEOPLE THAT THEY SHOULD ACTUALLY SUPPORT YOU RATHER THAN SUPPORTING THE PEOPLE THAT WERE AGAINST YOU.

BUT THAT IS IN A WAY PREMATURE NOW.

IT IS NOT TO SAY THAT THERE SHOULDN'T BE THOUGHT ABOUT PROVIDING SOME KIND OF MEDICAL ASSISTANCE, PERHAPS OUTSIDE OR SOME OTHER WAY, BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY, THIS IS ALL ABOUT HARD POWER AND WHO CAN ACTUALLY TAKE CONTROL AND IF THOSE THAT WE APPEAR TO SUPPORT CAN TAKE CONTROL, THEN WE SHOULD PILE ON WITH THE SOFT POWER TO SHOW THE PEOPLE THAT THERE CAN BE A BETTER LIFE.

LET'S KEEP IN MIND, SOMEBODY CALCULATED THE OTHER DAY THAT THE IRANIAN REAL, THEIR CURRENCY, IS DOWN BY 99% SINCE THE REVOLUTION OF 1979.

AND THEY HAVE BEEN RULED BY A REGIME THAT HAS DRIVEN THEM NATIONALLY INTO POVERTY AND INTERNATIONALLY INTO ISOLATION.

AND THAT IS OF COURSE THE SOURCE OF THE ENORMOUS UNREST BY THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE PEOPLE.

KILLED IN THE STREETS BY TENS OF THOUSANDS WITH THOUSANDS MORE DETAINED.

AND THERE SHOULD BE OUTRAGE ABOUT THIS.

THE QUESTION IS, IF THOSE WHO ARE SO OUTRAGED EVEN IF IT IS THE BULK OF THE POPULATION, CAN GENERATE THE KIND OF HARD POWER THAT CAN TAKE DOWN A REGIME THAT EVEN AFTER ALL OF THE DAMAGE AND DESTRUCTION AND DEGRADATION WILL STILL NUMBER IN THE MANY, MANY HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF GUYS WITH GUNS AND A RUTHLESSNESS THAT THEY HAVE DEMONSTRATED IN THE PAST.

>> A REGIME FOR NEARLY HALF A CENTURY THAT HAS PREVENTED THEIR COUNTRY, THEIR POPULATION FROM THEIR UTMOST POTENTIAL.

A COUNTRY THAT COULD HAVE BEEN A G20 COUNTRY.

I'M SO SORRY, GENERAL, WE ARE OUT OF TIME.

I DID WANT TO ASK YOU THAT FINAL QUESTION BECAUSE YOU YOURSELF SAY THE FIRST QUESTION IN WAR IS TELL ME HOW THIS ENDS.

WE ARE FOUR DAYS IN.

I HOPE WE CAN HAVE YOU BACK TO TRY TO ANSWER THAT QUESTION.

>> I LOOK FORWARD TO DISCUSSING IT.

THANKS.

>> NOW, AS IRAN CONTINUES LAUNCHING STRIKES ON U.S.

ALLIES OUR CORRESPONDENT IS ON THE GROUND IN SAUDI ARABIA, THE UNITED STATES CLOSING ONE OF THREE EMBASSIES THERE.

NICK, WE HEAR FROM A NUMBER OF OFFICIALS, THE PRESIDENT COMMENTED ON THIS.

AND GENERAL PETRAEUS DID AS WELL.

UAI IS THE HARDEST HIT IN TERMS OF BEING ON THE RECEIVING END OF MUSCLES AND DRONES.

JUST TELL ME HOW THESE COUNTRIES ARE RESPONDING FOUR DAYS IN.

>> YEAH, THEY ARE TAKING ALL THE DEFENSIVE MEASURES THEY CAN.

AND I THINK THE PERCEPTION HERE IS THAT IRAN HAS DONE SOMETHING THAT IT HASN'T DONE.

THAT IT HAS ALWAYS MADE THIS MISCALCULATIONS.

IT WAS IRAN ACCUSED OF SENDING A MULTIPLE COMPLEX DRONE ATTACK.

SO, IRAN HAS A HISTORY AND A RECORD, THAT IS WELL KNOWN HERE IN THE REGION FOR TRYING TO SEND MESSAGES THROUGH ATTACKS.

BUT THE ASSESSMENT HERE IS IRAN WOULD ATTACK ONE OR TWO OF THE GULF COUNTRIES BUT NOT THE OTHER TO TRY TO DIVIDE THEM.

TO PUT PRESSURE ON THE UNITED STATES.

SORRY, I THINK WE HAVE A SMALL PROBLEM HERE.

>> IS THERE AN AUDIO ISSUE?

WE SEEM TO BE HAVING A TECHNICAL ISSUE WITH NICK THERE, OUR THANKS TO HIM.

LET'S GO TO OUR NEXT GUEST, AS U.S.

LEADERS CONTINUE TO OFFER CONTRADICTORY OBJECTIVES FOR WAR WITH IRAN, PRESIDENT TRUMP CITED THE NUCLEAR THREAT AND A LONG RANGE MISSILE PROGRAM THAT COULD QUOTE SOON REACH THE AMERICAN HOMELAND.

DEFENSE SECRETARY PETE HEGSETH CITES IRAN'S NONNUCLEAR WEAPONS.

AS WE HEARD, SECRETARY OF STATE MARCO RUBIO SAYS A PLANNED ISRAELI ATTACK FORCED THE U.S.

TO STRIKE PREEMPTIVELY.

HERE NOW TO PARSE THROUGH AMERICA'S SHIFTING JUSTIFICATIONS FOR WAR IS THE INFLUENTIAL MILITARY ANALYST FOR HARETZ, ISRAEL'S OLDEST DAILY NEWSPAPER AND A FREQUENT GUEST ON OUR PROGRAM, AMOS, IT IS GOOD TO SEE YOU.

THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR TAKING THE TIME.

SO THERE WE HAVE IT, THE PRESIDENT SAYING ONE THING.

NOTABLY THAT THE UNITED STATES WAS FACING SOMEWHAT OF AN IMMINENT RISK FROM A STRIKE FROM IRAN.

AND CITING NOT ONLY ITS NUCLEAR PROGRAM, BUT ALSO ITS BALLISTIC MISSILES PROGRAM THAT AT SOME POINT HE SAID WERE SHIELDING THE NUCLEAR PROGRAM.

AND, ALSO PERHAPS THREATENING THE WEST REGION AND THE UNITED STATES.

MARCO RUBIO YOU HEARD SAYING THAT THIS WAS AN ACTION TAKEN BECAUSE ISRAEL WAS GOING TO STRIKE FIRST.

THE PRESIDENT APPEARED TO CLEAN THAT UP A LITTLE BIT IN THE OVAL OFFICE AS HE WAS MEETING WITH FREDERICK MERTZ SAYING IF ANYTHING HE FORCED ISRAEL'S HAND.

HOW IS THIS PLAYING OUT FOUR DAYS INTO THIS WAR?

>> SO, THERE ARE QUITE A LOT OF CONTRADICTING STATEMENTS THERE.

MOSTLY FROM THE AMERICAN SIDE.

IT IS NOT A PRECEDENT, WE HAVE TO ADMIT.

WE HAVE SEEN PRESIDENT TRUMP IN THE LAST YEAR OR SO MAKING ALL KINDS OF STATEMENTS ABOUT DEVELOPMENTS AND CHANGES HIS MIND IN RETROSPECT ABOUT SOME OF THOSE EVENTS BUT I WOULD FOCUS ON THE PRESIDENT'S LAST STATEMENT SAYING HE WAS JUST AN HOUR AGO, THAT HE WAS ACTUALLY QUITE CONVINCED THAT THE IRANIANS WERE ABOUT TO INITIATE A SURPRISE ATTACK AND THAT IT WAS HE ACTUALLY WHO PRESSURED NETANYAHU INTO AGREEING FOR A JOINT STRIKE.

THE TRUTH IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE.

NETANYAHU HAS BEEN PREACHES FOR QUITE SOME TIME, THE ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER, THAT THE UNITED STATES SHOULD DEAL AGAIN WITH IRAN.

THAT THERE SHOULD BE A JOINT CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN.

AND THE END RESULT, NOT ALWAYS AS HE SAID THAT PUBLICLY, BUT I THINK THE PRIME MINISTER BELIEVES THAT THE END RESULT SHOULD BE REGIME CHANGE IN IRAN.

THE QUESTION FROM THE ISRAELI SIDE IS HOW MUCH TIME DO WE HAVE?

WILL THIS END WITHIN A FEW DAYS AND PRESIDENT TRUMP SEEMS TO HAVE HINTED IN THAT DIRECTION JUST A FEW HOURS AGO.

OR DO WE HAVE QUITE A FEW WEEK TO DEAL WITH THAT?

DESPITE THE FACT THE FIRST ATTACK WAS QUITE SUCCESSFUL, IT ELIMINATED THE SUPREME LEADER AND DOZENS OF COMMANDERS.

I'M NOT SURE IF ANYBODY KNOWS HOW TO GET FROM POINT A TO POINT B. TO ACTUALLY ACHIEVE A REGIME CHANGE AND PERSUADE THE IRANIAN PEOPLE TO GET BACK TO THE STREETS AND FIGHT THE REGIME IN ORDER TO BRING AN END TO THIS SAGA.

>> I SPOKE IN THE LAST HOUR WITH FORMER DEFENSE MINISTER GALLANT AND ASKED ABOUT HOW REGIME CHANGE WOULD UNFOLD IF THAT IS THE ULTIMATE GOAL BY ISRAEL AND THE UNITED STATES IN IRAN WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF U.S.

BOOTS OR ISRAELI BOOTS.

BOTH PRESIDENT TRUMP WHILE HE DIDN'T COMPLETELY TAKE THAT OFF THE TABLE WOULD CLEARLY LIKE TO AVOID THAT.

AND GALLANT WHILE NO LONGER IN THE GOVERNMENT SAID HE DIDN'T BELIEVE ISRAELI BOOTS NEEDED TO BE ON THE GROUND BUT HE SUGGESTED SOFT POWER WOULD BE PERHAPS INVOLVED HERE.

IN DETERMINING AND HELPING THE IRANIAN PEOPLE FIGURE OUT WHO THEIR NEXT LEADERSHIP WILL BE.

JUST TALK ABOUT THAT.

THE PRESSURE THERE.

AND, THE CHALLENGES THAT.

COWITH THAT.

>> SO THIS SEEMS QUITE VAGUE TO ME AS WELL.

SORT OF WISHFUL THINKING.

IF WE DO THIS, MAYBE THEY DO THAT.

AND WE GET THE DESIRED RESULT OF WHAT WE ARE TRYING TO ACHIEVE.

BUT PRESIDENT TRUMP IS NOT EVEN SAID THAT.

WE DON'T GET A REAL PICTURE OF WHAT HE IS INTERESTED IN.

WILL HE SETTLE FOR SOME KIND OF AGREEMENT OR NUCLEAR COMPROMISE?

WILL HE SAY I DID MY SHARE, WE STARTED A MASSIVE MILITARY CAMPAIGN.

NOW IT IS UP TO THE IRANIAN PEOPLE.

NONE OF THIS IS CLEAR YET.

PARADOXICALLY, I THINK THE GOLDEN HOUR, THE OPPORTUNITY TO CHANGE SOMETHING SERIOUS IN IRAN HAS PASSED.

THAT HAPPENED AROUND THE BEGINNING TO MID JANUARY OF THIS YEAR, THE TERRIBLE NIGHT BETWEEN THE EIGHTH AND THE NINTH OF JANUARY WHEN THE REGIME SLAUGHTERED THOUSANDS OF THOUSANDS OF PROTESTERS ON THE STREETS OF TEHERAN AND OTHER IRANIAN CITIES.

AND THAT TIME WE KNOW IN RETROSPECT, NEITHER THE AMERICAN OR ISRAELI INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY KNEW WHAT HAPPENED.

THE PRESIDENT WAS DELIBERATING FOR A FEW DAYS.

HE WAS ABOUT TO STRIKE JANUARY 14th AND PERSUADED BY THE PENTAGON AND NETANYAHU NOT TO ACT BECAUSE THE ASSUMPTION WAS THAT THE AMERICANS WERE NOT READY.

NOT ENOUGH DEFENSE LAYERS TO PROTECT AMERICAN FORCES IN THE REGION AND PROTECT ISRAEL.

AND NOT ENOUGH OPTIONS ON THE ATTACK TO OVERTHROW THE REGIME.

THAT GOLDEN OPPORTUNITY WAS MISSED.

AND THAT WAS SIX OR SEVEN WEEKS AGO.

NOW, WHEN YOU FINALLY HAVE WHAT TRUMP CALLED THE BEAUTIFUL ARMADA IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND THERE ARE SO MANY FORCES AND SO MANY FIGHTER PLANES THERE, IT GETS MESSY AND COMPLICATED TO ACTUALLY ACHIEVE THOSE GOALS BECAUSE THE IRANIANS ARE TAKING NO PRISONERS.

IT IS QUITE APPARENT THAT THEY ARE WILLING TO DO ANYTHING IN ORDER TO STAY IN POWER BY ANY MEANS NECESSARY.

>> AND NOW THAT HEZBOLLAH HAS ENTERED THE WAR, OBVIOUSLY A MUCH WEAKENED FIGHTING FORCE, BUT NONETHELESS, CAPABLE OF DOING DAMAGE INSIDE OF ISRAEL, ISRAEL BOWS TO CONTINUE TO FIGHT HEZBOLLAH NOW AND THAT FRAGILE CEASE FIRE COMING TO AN END, WE HAVE HAD GENERAL PETRAEUS AND OTHERS DESCRIBE THE DECISION TO ATTACK GCC NEIGHBORS AS A STUPID ONE.

AND MANY ARE SAYING THAT IS THE SAME CHARACTERIZATION FOR HEZBOLLAH.

IN DECIDING TO JOIN THIS WAR, NONETHELESS, DOES ISRAEL VIEW THIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY TO ELIMINATE HEZBOLLAH OR CAN YOU SEE RISKS AND CHALLENGES AND STRAINS ON THE RESOURCES THAT NOW ISRAEL IS HAVING TO EXPAND NOT ONLY AGAINST IRAN, BUT TO ITS NORTH?

>> SO THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT DEVELOPMENT.

30 MINUTES AGO, THERE WERE SIRENS IN NORTHERN ISRAEL AND IN THE CENTER OF ISRAEL AROUND THE TEL AVIV AREA, HEZBOLLAH HAD APPARENTLY LAUNCHED A FEW ROCKETS TOWARD THE NORTH AND CENTER OF ISRAEL.

THANKFULLY, THEY MISSED THEIR TARGETS AND AT LEAST TWO OF THEM WERE INTERCEPTED BY THE ISRAELI FORCES SO HEZBOLLAH MEANS BUSINESS.

IT IS QUITE CLEAR BY NOW.

AND LET HEZBOLLAH IS MUCH WEAKENED.

IF YOU LOOK BACK, YOU PROBABLY RECALL THAT.

THINGS GOT MORE TENSE ON OUR NORTHERN BORDER.

AND BETWEEN I WOULD SAY JULY AND NOVEMBER OF 24, THERE WAS A MASSIVE MILITARY CAMPAIGN THAT ENDED IN A CLEAR ISRAELI VICTORY AND A CEASE FIRE THAT FORCED HEZBOLLAH TO PUT DOWN ITS ARMS AND STOP FIGHTING ISRAEL DIRECTLY.

THEY HAVE LESS WEAPONS AND EXPERIENCED COMMANDERS AND FIGHTERS AND THE MAIN IN CHARGE IS NOT A CHARISMATIC LEADER.

THINK WAS NOT SOMEBODY WHO WAS BORN FOR THIS JOB.

HE REPLACED THE ONE ASSASSINATED LATE SEPTEMBER OF 24.

SO THEY ARE PLAYING THIS GAME WITH DIFFERENT CARDS NOW.

ON THE OTHER HAND, THEY DON'T HAVE MUCH CHOICE.

IT IS THE IRANIANS WHO HAVE BEEN FINANCING THEM FOR DECADES PROBABLY CLOSE TO A BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR SUPPLY OF WEAPONS, SALARIES AND SO ON.

WHO ARE DEMANDING THEIR HELP CONSIDERING WHAT IS GOING ON IN TEHERAN.

HEZBOLLAH IS NOT GOING ALL THE WAY AND ISRAELI REACTION FOR THE TIME BEING IS LIMITED.

THERE WERE FEW ASSASSINATIONS IN BEIRUT.

ISRAEL SAYS IT WILL DEPLOY MORE FORCES ON THE GROUND IN SOUTHERN LEBANON, BUT THIS IS A VERY NARROW ZONE CLOSE TO THE ISRAELI BORDER.

FOR THE TIME BEING IT DOESN'T SEEM AS IF ISRAEL IS ABOUT TO LAUNCH A MASSIVE GROUND CAMPAIGN IN LEBANON.

THE MAIN PRIORITY RIGHT NOW IS IRAN AND LEBANON.

THIS IS NOT WORKING OUT VERY WELL FOR HEZBOLLAH.

THEY PRACTICALLY STEPPED INTO A TRAP AND THIS TRAP WAS PREPARED BY NETANYAHU AND ISRAELI MILITARY.

>> HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THE DEFIANT PUSHBACK AND THREATS AGAINST HEZBOLLAH TO NOT ENTER THE FRAY?

>> THIS IS EXTREMELY INTERESTING FROM AN ISRAELI PERSPECTIVE, AND FROM THE ARAB OR LEBANESE PERSPECTIVE AS WELL.

A YEAR OR TWO AGO ONE COULD NOT IMAGINE THE LEADERSHIP OF BEIRUT AND THE LEBANESE MILITARY WOULD BE THAT VOCAL IN THEIR OPPOSITION TO HEZBOLLAH AND THEIR DEMANDS THAT HEZBOLLAH WOULD STOP FIGHTING.

I THINK I'M NOT AN EXPERT ON LEBANON.

BUT FROM WHAT I FOLLOWED THE NEWS THERE IN RECENT DAYS IT IS CLEAR THAT MOST OF THE POLITICAL ARENA AND MOST OF THE PUBLIC ARE DEEPLY AGAINST HEZBOLLAH MILITARY CAMPAIGN BECAUSE THEY KNOW THAT THEY AS THE OTHER CITIZENS OF LEBANON WOULD PAY A DEAR PRICE, NOT UNLIKE THE SITUATION IN WHICH THE IRANIAN LEADERSHIP FINDS ITSELF.

NOW OF COURSE, THERE ARE THOSE IN ISRAEL WHO SAY WE SHOULD NOT WASTE THIS OPPORTUNITY, WE SHOULD HIT HARDER AGAINST HEZBOLLAH HOPING TO FINALLY CHANGE THE STATUS QUO THERE.

WE'LL SEE HOW THIS PLAYS OUT.

IN MY VIEW, THIS REMAINS THE SECOND ARENA.

NOT THE FIRST ONE.

THINGS WOULD BE DECIDED ABOUT IRAN AND IN IRAN.

AND DECISIONS WOULD BE MADE IN WASHINGTON MORE THAN ANYWHERE ELSE IN THE WORLD.

>> AND WHILE WE HEARD SECRETARY HEGSETH DESCRIBE ISRAEL AS A MODEL PARTNER, THE MOOD ON THE GROUND IN ISRAEL AMONG THE POPULATION IS QUITE DIFFERENT THAN SORT OF THE SKEPTICAL REACTION THAT WE ARE SEEING FROM NOT ONLY DEMOCRATS HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT EVEN SOME REPUBLICANS AS TO THE URGENCY OF THE UNITED STATES HAVING TO TAKE THESE ACTIONS NOW.

THIS IS VIEWED AS FIRST AND FOREMOST, ITS BIGGEST EXISTENTIAL THREAT.

IN TERMS OF WHERE ISRAEL SEES THIS GOING AND THE PRIME MINISTER'S ULTIMATE GOAL, THIS OPERATION IS BEING CALLED ROARING LION.

IS THIS THE END OF THE SO- CALLED LION OPERATIONS OR IS THIS ONE OF THOSE PROMISES THE PRIME MINISTER IS MAKING LIKE HE DID IN GAZA THAT MILITARY OFFICIALS ARE NOT QUITE SURE OR AS CONFIDENT THEY WILL BE ABLE TO ACCOMPLISH?

>> SO I WOULDN'T SAY THE PEOPLE ARE ELATED BY THIS.

THE BEGINNING OF THIS WAR SATURDAY MORNING, ISRAELI TIME TOOK MOST OF THE PUBLIC BY SURPRISE, THERE WERE SIRENS ALL OVER ISRAEL.

PRETTY QUICKLY THERE WERE MISSILES LAUNCHED AND DRONES LAUNCHED TOWARD OUR POPULATION CENTERS.

WE HAVE BEEN FIGHTING SINCE OCTOBER 7.

STUFF WAS HAPPENING ALL THE TIME.

AND THIS WAS NOT AN EASY EXPERIENCE FOR ISRAELIS ESPECIALLY AFTER THE TRAUMA OF OCTOBER 7th.

AND YET I THINK THERE HAVEN'T BEEN MANY PUBLIC OPINION POLLS BUT I THINK THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION FOR THE TIME BEING SEES THIS AS A NECESSARY STEP.

IT IS HAPPY TO SEE, THEY PREACH THE FEAT OF ISRAEL ANNIHILATED COMPLETELY.

WE ARE NOT HAPPY TO SEE HIM GO.

NOBODY HERE IS GOING TO MISS.

ON THE OTHER HAND, I THINK AT LEAST HALF OF THE ISRAELI POPULATION IS VERY SUSPICIOUS OF NETANYAHU'S INTENTION.

HE IS NOT A POPULAR PRIME MINISTER.

MANY ISRAELIS DEMAND HIS RESIGNATION BECAUSE OF WHAT THEY SEE AS HIS RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE MASSACRE, THE MISTAKES THAT LED TO THE MASSACRE ON OCTOBER 7th AND PEOPLE REMAIN SUSPICIOUS HE IS USING THIS FOR HIS POLITICAL GAINS.

THAT HIS STRATEGY IS TO MAINTAIN WAR ON ALL FRONTS TO AVOID DISCUSSION OF OCTOBER 7 AND OTHER ISSUE THAT'S REMAIN OPEN IN THE ISRAELI POLITICS.

>> I DO APOLOGIZE, WE ARE TIGHT ON TIME.

BUT IT IS INTERESTING TO SEE THE OPPOSITION THUS FAR HAS PUBLICLY EMBRACED THIS OPERATION.

WE'LL SEE HOW LONG THIS LASTS.

THANKS FOR YOUR TIME.

WE APPRECIATE IT.

>> THANK YOU.

>>> AS THE WORLD REACTS TO THE SPIRALING SITUATION IN THE MIDDLE EAST, OUR NEXT GUEST SAYS IT IS PART OF THE WIDER COLLAPSE OF RULES BASED ORDER.

THE ADVISER TO PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY JOINS WALTER ISAACSON.

>> THANK YOU BIANNA GOLODRYGA.

WELCOME TO THE SHOW.

>> GREAT TO BE HERE WALTER.

>> THIS ATTACK ON IRAN BY THE UNITED STATES HAS PRODUCED A RESPONSE FROM CANADA, YOUR PRIME MINISTER, YOUR ONCE FOREIGN MINISTER OF CANADA.

I WOULD LIKE YOU TO EXPLAIN IT TO US.

WHAT THE CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER SAID WAS THAT CANADA SUPPORTS THE UNITED STATES ACTING TO PREVENT IRAN FROM OBTAINING A NUCLEAR WEAPON AND TO PREVENT ITS REGIME FROM FURTHER THREATENING INTERNATIONAL PEACE AND SECURITY, EXPLAIN WHAT CANADA'S POSITION IS ON THIS WAR.

>> WELL LOOK, WALTER, IMPORTANT FOR ME TO BE VERY CLEAR, I STEPPED DOWN FROM THE CABINET IN THE FALL AND FROM PARLIAMENT A FEW WEEKS AGO.

SO I'M NOT HERE SPEAKING ON BEHALF OF THE GOVERNMENT OF CANADA AND I WANT TO BE REALLY, REALLY CLEAR ABOUT THAT.

BUT I AM A CANADIAN.

I AM A LIBERAL.

AND PROUD OF BOTH THINGS.

I THINK A REALLY IMPORTANT STARTING POINT FOR ME WHEN IT COMES TO IRAN IS RECOGNIZING THE INCREDIBLE SUFFERING OF THE PEOPLE OF IRAN.

RECOGNIZING HOW OPPRESSIVE THIS THEOCRATIC REGIME HAS BEEN AND HOW HARD AND HOW BRAVELY THE PEOPLE OF IRAN TIME AND TIME AGAIN HAVE BEEN FIGHTING THIS REGIME AND RISING UP AGAINST IT INCLUDING IN RECENT WEEKS.

THERE IS A LARGE IRANIAN CANADIAN COMMUNITY HERE.

MANY OF THEM MY FRIENDS.

AND I HAVE TO SAY OVER THIS WEEKEND, WHILE NO ONE KNOWS WHAT THE FUTURE WILL HOLD AND IRANIAN CANADIANS, MANY OF THEM HAVE FAMILY IN IRAN.

THEY ARE VERY WELL INFORMED.

THEY ARE AS SMART AS ANY ANALYST YOU WILL TALK TO ABOUT KNOWING THERE WILL BE ALL KINDS OF DIFFICULT AND HARD TO PREDICT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE FUTURE.

BUT ONE THING I DID HEAR FROM MY FRIENDS THIS WEEKEND IS CELEBRATION THAT A TYRANT HAS DIED AND FROM MY PERSPECTIVE, ALL OF US NEED TO REALLY START THERE AND RECOGNIZE THAT.

>> ONE OF THE THING THAT'S THE RUSSIAN OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN SAYING IS THAT THIS KIND OF UNLEASHES THEM TO DO REGIME CHANGES AND ATTACKS.

YOU OBVIOUSLY WILL TALK SOON ABOUT UKRAINE.

YOU HAVE JUST COME BACK FROM THERE.

THEY ALSO SAID ON ESTONIA, MAYBE RUSSIA WILL START ACTING THIS WAY.

IS THAT SOMETHING YOU FEAR?

>> I THINK WE NEED TO BE WORRIED ABOUT A FEW THINGS.

ONE IS IF THE PRECEDENT THAT IS BEING SET IS ANY COUNTRY WITH SUPERIOR MILITARY FORCE SIMPLY HAS THE RIGHT TO TAKE OUT THE LEADERSHIP OF ANOTHER COUNTRY, THAT IS REALLY, REALLY TROUBLING.

I THINK THAT THERE ARE ALSO SOME REAL CONCERNS THAT WE SHOULD BE TALKING ABOUT NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION.

BECAUSE IF YOU ARE A SMALLER COUNTRY THAT IS CONCERNED ABOUT THIS PRECEDENT, IT IS GOING TO BE PRETTY TEMPTING FOR COUNTRIES TO THINK IN A WORLD WHERE THERE ARE NO RULES, WHERE THERE ARE NO RULES OF WAR, WHERE THAT HOST WAR LIBERAL ORDER IMPERFECT AS IT WAS, IS NOW COMPLETELY BEING DISREGARDED.

IF THAT'S THE WORLD WE ARE IN, IT IS GOING TO BE HARD FOR SMALLER COUNTRIES TO RESIST THE VIEW THAT THEY NEED TO DEVELOP NUCLEAR WEAPONS.

AND THAT MAKES THE WORLD MORE DANGEROUS FOR ALL OF US.

>> LET ME UNPACK SOMETHING YOU JUST SAID WHICH IS THAT THIS NOTION OF A STRONG POWER DECIDING TO TAKE OUT THE LEADERSHIP, IN OTHER WORDS, TO KILL THE LEADERSHIP OF ANOTHER COUNTRY, IS THAT A LINE THAT HAS BEEN CROSSED HERE THAT IS SOMEWHAT UNUSUAL AND MAY HAVE A DANGEROUS PRECEDENT?

>> WELL, YOU KNOW WALTER, IT IS NOT THAT UNUSUAL.

IT IS, AFTER ALL, WHAT VLADIMIR PUTIN TRIED TO DO IN UKRAINE.

AND THANKS TO THE REMARKABLE RESISTANCE OF THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE IN FEBRUARY OF 2022, HE DID NOT SUCCEED IN TAKING OUT THE UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP.

SO THIS HAS HAPPENED BEFORE.

WHAT, YOU KNOW, IT IS PRETTY TRENDY RIGHT NOW, WALTER, TO SAY OH, YOU KNOW, THAT RULES BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER THAT WE HAD AFTER THE SECOND WORLD WAR WASN'T REALLY REAL ANYWAY.

IT WAS HYPOCRITICAL.

IT WAS ACTUALLY JUST A MASK FOR AMERICA AND LOTS OF BAD THINGS HAPPENED IN THAT POST WORLD WAR TWO ERA WHEN THIS ORDER OSTENSIBLY EXISTED.

I THINK, I HOPE THAT WE WILL ALL NOW START TO REFLECT ON THE FACT THAT THERE WAS AN ORDER OF SOME KIND.

THERE WAS A VIEW THAT A DEGREE OF INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS WAS NECESSARY.

THERE WAS OF INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS WAS NECESSARY BEFORE ACTING, BEFORE INTERVENING IN FOREIGN COUNTRIES.

THERE WERE RULES OF WAR.

AND I THINK THAT ALL OF US NEED TO BE VERY, VERY THOUGHTFUL ABOUT SUPPORTING THE CREATION OF A WORLD WHERE ANYTHING GOES AND MIGHT MAKES RIGHT.

AND ESPECIALLY I'M GLAD TO BE TALKING TO YOU, WALTER BECAUSE YOU ARE AMERICAN.

AND AMERICA IS STILL THE SUPERPOWER.

YOU REALLY CAN DO PRETTY MUCH WHAT YOU WANT.

AND I HOPE THAT THIS IS A MOMENT FOR AMERICANS TO REFLECT ON THE FACT THAT THE RULES BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER WHICH DID ACT AS A CONSTRAINT ON AMERICAN POWER PROVIDED AMERICA WITH SOME MEANINGFUL PROTECTION.

>> DO YOU THINK THIS WAS A VIOLATION OF THE RULES BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER?

>> LOOK, THIS WAS A MILITARY ACTION UNDERTAKEN BY THE U.S.

AND ISRAEL WITHOUT CONSULTATION.

I DO WANT TO COME BACK TO THE FACT THAT IT WAS AN ACTION THAT ALSO REMOVED A TYRANT.

AND YOU KNOW, IN REFLECTING ON THE RULES BASED INTERNATIONAL ORDER, AND LIBERAL ACTIONS IN THAT ORDER IS SOMETHING I THINK WE DO NEED TO REFLECT ON IS, YOU KNOW, I'M A BIG BELIEVER IN LIBERAL DEMOCRACY.

IN MY COUNTRY.

I THINK THAT LIBERAL DEMOCRACY HAS TO BE READY TO STAND UP AND FIGHT FOR ITSELF.

AND ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE OBSERVED OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES IS MAYBE IN THE SHADOW OF THE WAR IN IRAQ, LIBERAL DEMOCRACY BECAME SCARED OF STANDING UP FOR ITSELF.

WE SAW THAT IN THE NONREACTION TO THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF GEORGIA.

WE SAW THAT IN THE FACT THAT WHEN ASSAD CROSSED RED LINES IN SYRIA, THERE WAS NO RESPONSE.

WE SAW THAT IN THE FACT THAT UKRAINE WAS NEVER GIVEN ENOUGH, HAS NOT BEEN GIVEN ENOUGH SUPPORT TO ACTUALLY WIN.

WE HAVE SEEN THAT IN THE PREVIOUS REACTIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS ACTIONS TOWARDS MADURO.

I WAS VERY ACTIVE IN THE LIMA GROUP WHICH WAS A WESTERN HEMISPHERE INITIATIVE TO SUPPORT THE DEMOCRATIC OPPOSITION IN VENEZUELA.

WE DID A LOT, BUT NOT ENOUGH.

I DO THINK LIBERAL DEMOCRATS LIKE ME NEED TO REFLECT ON THE FACT FOR TWO DECADES, PUTIN WAS A BETTER ALLY TO HAVE THAN WASHINGTON.

IF YOU HAD HIM ON YOUR SIDE, YOU COULD STICK AROUND.

SO THESE ARE REALLY, REALLY TOUGH QUESTIONS.

WHAT I LIKE TO COME BACK TO IS THE PEOPLE OF IRAN.

THEY HAVE BEEN FIGHTING VERY, VERY HARD FOR DEMOCRACY.

THEY HAVE SUFFERED MASSACRES.

AND I REALLY THINK IT IS VERY, VERY IMPORTANT TO HAVE THEIR WELL BEING, THEIR STRUGGLE AT THE CENTER OF THE CONVERSATION.

>> YOU STEPPED DOWN TO BECOME AN UNPAID ADVISER TO PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY IN UKRAINE.

IF RUSSIA SAID WHY DON'T WE SEND IN LARGE AMOUNTS OF PLANES AND DRONES AND TRACK ZELENSKYY AND KILL HIM AND EVERYBODY, DO YOU THINK THAT IT IS POSSIBLE?

>> PUTIN NEEDS NO ENCOURAGEMENT TO GO AFTER UKRAINE AND PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY.

HE HAS BEEN TRYING TO SUBDUE UKRAINE, TO CONQUER, TO DECAPITATE THE GOVERNMENT SINCE FEBRUARY OF 2022 IN A FULL SCALE INVASION.

AND IN FACT, SINCE 2014.

IT HAS BEEN AN EXPLICIT EFFORT TO CONTROL UKRAINE AND TO UNSEAT THE GOVERNMENT.

SO VLADIMIR PUTIN NEEDS NO ENCOURAGEMENT.

HE IS ALREADY THROWING EVERYTHING HE HAS AT UKRAINE AND IT IS A TESTAMENT TO THE STRENGTH OF THE UKRAINIAN LEADERSHIP AND THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE THAT AFTER MORE THAN FOUR YEARS OF WAR, THEY ARE STILL STRONG AND INDEPENDENT.

PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY HAS BEEN PUBLICLY CLEAR AND SUPPORTIVE OF THIS ATTACK AT THE MUNICH SECURITY CONFERENCE.

HE SINGLED OUT IRAN AS A COUNTRY WHICH IS SUPPORTING THE RUSSIAN FULL SCALE INVASION OF UKRAINE AND HE IS RIGHT.

IT IS IRANIAN WEAPONS WHICH ARE BEING USED TO RAIN DOWN DEATH ON THE UKRAINIAN CIVILIAN POPULATION.

THAT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT THAT AIONS EXISTS.

PRESIDENT ZELENSKYY HAS BEEN CLEAR THIS ATTACK IS AN ATTACK ON THE IRANIAN, NORTH KOREAN, RUSSIAN CHINESE ALLIANCE THAT HAS BEEN DOING SO MUCH HARM TO UKRAINE.

HE ALSO SAID THAT UKRAINE HAS A LOT OF EXPERTISE IN SHOOTING DOWN SHAHED DRONES AND WOULD BE HAPPY TO LEND THAT EXPERTISE TO THE U.S.

AND ISRAEL.

>> YOU HAVE JUST COME BACK FROM UKRAINE.

TELL ME WHAT YOU SAW ON THE GROUND.

>> WALTER, I SAW PEOPLE WHO WERE REALLY TIRED AS I'M SURE YOUR VIEWERS KNOW.

WHAT HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY HORRIBLE ABOUT THIS WINTER IS THAT RUSSIA ATTACKED THE POWER GRID.

IT ATTACKED THE POWER GRID IN MAJOR UKRAINIAN CITIES INCLUDEING THE CAPITAL KU.

AND THAT MEANT A LOT OF PEOPLE IN A WINTER WHERE THE TEMPERATURE DROPPED TO 20 BELOW ZERO CELSIUS, A LOT OF PEOPLE WENT FOR HOURS AND HOURS, DAYS EVEN WITHOUT HEATING IN THEIR APARTMENT.

THIS IS A CITY OF SOVIET SKYSCRAPERS SO WHEN THE POWER IS OUT, THE ELEVATOR DOESN'T WORK EITHER.

OFTEN THE WATER DOESN'T RUN AS WELL.

THERE WAS A LOT OF REAL PERSONAL HARDSHIP FOR PEOPLE.

AND YOU COULD SEE IT ON PEOPLE'S FACES.

EVERYONE I TALKED TO SAID THEY WERE REALLY TIRED.

BUT WHAT I WAS ALSO STRUCK BY IS BEING TIRED DIDN'T MEAN PEOPLE WERE INCLINED TO GIVE UP.

WHAT REALLY EVERY SINGLE PERSON I SPOKE TO AND THAT INCLUDES, I SPOKE TO A LOT OF SOLDIERS, I SPOKE TO A LOT OF THEIR COMMANDERS.

EVERY SINGLE PERSON I SPOKE TO SAID YES, WE ARE TIRED.

YES, WE HATE THIS WAR.

YES, THE COST IS VERY, VERY HIGH.

BUT, WE CAN'T GIVE UP.

BECAUSE THE ALTERNATIVE TO FIGHTING IS TO BE SUBJUGATED AND WE ARE NOT GOING TO ACCEPT THAT.

>> DO YOU THINK WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN IRAN MAKES IT MORE LIKELY THIS GETS RESOLVED OR WILL IT CONTINUE TO DRAG ON FOR ANOTHER FOUR YEARS?

>> YOU KNOW, WALTER, NO ONE GAVE ME A CRYSTAL BALL WHEN I WAS A CABINET MINISTER AND NO ONE GAVE ME A CRYSTAL BALL WHEN I STEPPED DOWN FROM ELECTED POLITICS.

SO I'M NOT GOING TO MAKE A PREDICTION.

BUT, AND I THINK ACTUALLY THE INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK IS MORE VOLATILE AND HARDER TO PREDICT THAN IT HAS BEEN FOR A LONG TIME.

IT IS ONE OF THOSE MOMENTS YOU KNOW THAT GREAT YATES LINE.

THE WORST ARE FULL OF PASSIONATE CONVICTION.

THE BEST LACK ALL INTENSITY.

I THINK PEOPLE WHO TELL YOU THAT THEY KNOW EXACTLY WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN ARE EITHER IGNORANT OR LIARS.

AND I'M GOING TO TRY TO AVOID BOTH.

WHAT I WILL SAY ABOUT UKRAINE AND A VERY SMART UKRAINIAN CIVIL SOCIETY LEADER, SOMEONE WHO WAS RUSSIAN PRISONER OF WAR FOR A COUPLE OF YEARS AND THAT WAS A HORRIBLE THING TO BE.

THE TORTURE IS REALLY VILE.

AND WHO TODAY IS A CIVIL SOCIETY ACTIVIST.

A WRITER AND HISTORIAN.

I SPOKE TO HIM OVER THE WEEKEND AND HE SAID SOMETHING THAT WAS VERY POWERFUL TO ME.

HE SAID UKRAINE HAS ALREADY WON THIS WAR.

WE DIDN'T KNOW.

WE DENY KNOW HOW AS A SOCIETY WE WOULD RESPOND TO A FULL SCALE RUSSIAN INVASION.

AND NOW WE KNOW.

WE ARE HAVE CONSOLIDATED AS A SOCIETY.

THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF SOCIAL SOLIDARITY.

AND THEY ARE PRETTY GOOD AT FIGHTING.

IT IS ACTUALLY REMARKABLE THE RUSSIAN ARMY, THE SECOND LARGEST MILITARY IN THE WORLD, HAS BEEN HELD TO A STANDSTILL BY THE UKRAINIAN MILITARY MORE THAN FOUR YEARS NOW.

I WOULD SAY PEOPLE OF UKRAINE ARE EXHAUSTED AND BLEEDING AND WOUNDED AND PLAYING A HIGH PRICE.

THEY ARE DETERMINED TO MAINTAIN THEIR INDEPENDENCE.

I THINK THEY ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT THEY WILL SUCCEED.

THEY DON'T KNOW HOW LONG THE WAR WILL LAST.

THEY DON'T KNOW IF THERE WILL BE A CEASE FIRE IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

AND THEN A FURTHER RUSSIAN INVASION IN THE YEARS TO COME.

BUT THEY ARE CONFIDENT.

I THINK THAT THE BIGGER % CHALLENGE NOW, THE BIGGER QUESTION IS NOT WHETHER UKRAINE CAN RESIST RUSSIA.

IT IS WHETHER THERE WILL BE IN THE FUTURE A FURTHER RUSSIAN INCURSION INTO OTHER PARTS OF EUROPE AND HOW PREPARED EUROPE WOULD BE TO RESIST SUCH AN INCURSION.

I THINK THAT IS THE BIG QUESTION NOW.

>> THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR JOINING US.

>> THANK YOU, IT'S WONDERFUL TO BE WITH YOU.

A REAL HONOR.

>> AND THAT'S IT FOR OUR PROGRAM TONIGHT.

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